AGP Executive Report

Security & Stabilisation: AUSSOM chief El Hadji Ibrahima Diene met EU Ambassador Francesca Di Mauro in Mogadishu to discuss support for Somali security forces, protection of civilians and coordination with partners in operations against Al-Shabaab. Arms & Political Tensions: Mogadishu police say they found a weapons cache inside the Elite Hotel, including drones and sniper gear, during an operation in Abdiasis; the hotel owner linked to opposition figures says the raid disrupted business and raises investor fears. Humanitarian Pressure: FAO warns Somalia’s crisis is worsening from prolonged drought, possible El Niño-related flooding, and Middle East-linked economic shocks driving fuel and food inflation; it notes some rainfall relief but continued danger along the Shabelle River and severe coastal water shortages. Climate-Resilient Farming: The government, AfDB, WFP and UNOPS launched an $11.8m, three-year ACALS programme to support 180,000 people in Hirshabelle and Puntland with land and water management, drought-resilient crops, market access and early warning systems. Mogadishu Clashes: A UN-backed protection note reports clashes in Mogadishu killed 13, injured 189 and displaced about 12,500 households, with civilians trapped in crowded areas. Food Safety & Markets: Somalia’s push for safer livestock and animal products is highlighted around World Food Safety Day, linking standards and certification to market access and livelihoods. Regional Food Shock: WFP says Middle East war and high fuel prices are delaying aid deliveries and pushing more people toward hunger, with Somalia among the most vulnerable.

Maritime Security & Food Prices: The UN says the Strait of Hormuz closure tied to the Middle East war is already disrupting global humanitarian supply chains, with recovery unlikely before 2027—pushing up costs for staples like rice and wheat and worsening hunger risks for vulnerable countries including Somalia. Mogadishu Political Tensions: A raid on Mogadishu’s Elite Hotel has raised alarms about pressure on businesses linked to opposition figures, while clashes and security operations around Abdiaziz and other neighborhoods have displaced thousands and left civilians exposed. Humanitarian Impact of Violence: UN-backed reporting describes serious protection and humanitarian fallout from Mogadishu fighting, with families trapped in crowded areas and unable to evacuate safely. Somalia’s Trade & Environment Link: Somalia’s new Mogadishu maritime port plan is drawing investor attention as port capacity and logistics become critical for safer, faster movement of goods—key for food systems and resilience. EU Migration Pressure: EU ministers discussed new restrictive visa measures for Somali nationals, citing rising irregular arrivals and readmission gaps. Climate & Disaster Readiness: Somalia is also moving on climate early warning efforts, as regional weather extremes keep threatening livelihoods and food security.

Food Safety & Markets: Somalia marked World Food Safety Day with a focus on “From burden to solutions,” highlighting how clean handling, storage, and trusted certification can help livestock and animal products reach safer, more reliable markets—key for livelihoods and export growth under the HOA DRIVE/DRIVE push. Humanitarian Pressure: The UN World Food Programme says the Middle East conflict and high fuel costs are already worsening hunger far beyond the region, with Somalia among the most vulnerable as more people slide toward acute food insecurity. Mogadishu Security & Displacement: Clashes in Mogadishu killed 13, injured 189, and displaced about 12,500 households, with fighting spreading through crowded neighborhoods and leaving civilians unable to evacuate. Political Tensions: Somalia’s opposition warned against a planned search of former army commander Gen. Odawaa Yusuf Rage’s home, saying it could inflame tensions as Mogadishu remains volatile. EU Migration Moves: EU ministers discussed new restrictive visa measures for Somali nationals, citing increased irregular arrivals and weak readmission cooperation. Somalia Infrastructure: A new Mogadishu maritime port is pitched to attract long-term investors, with port traffic rising and capacity constraints pushing demand for expansion.

Mogadishu Maritime Port: Somalia’s New Mogadishu Maritime Port is being positioned for long-term investors, with container traffic rising and a new terminal commissioned in 2025—aimed at easing limits of the current port inside the dense capital. Food Security Shock: The UN warns the Middle East conflict and higher fuel costs are pushing millions closer to acute hunger, with Somalia named among the most vulnerable as aid delivery and supply chains get more expensive. Mogadishu Violence & Displacement: Clashes in Mogadishu killed at least 13 and injured 189, displacing about 12,500 households, as political tensions over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term extension deepen. Political Tensions Escalate: Puntland condemned federal forces’ reported actions against opposition leaders’ homes, warning Mogadishu’s security spiral could threaten national stability. EU Migration Pressure: EU ministers backed restrictive visa measures for Somali nationals, citing rising irregular arrivals and weak readmission cooperation. Regional Diplomacy: UAE and South Africa discussed regional stability and Somalia’s situation, linking maritime security and energy risks to wider instability. Climate Risk Planning: Somalia’s climate early warning push and community preparedness efforts continue to gain attention as provinces get early warnings of climate risks.

Mogadishu Clashes: A UN-backed Protection Cluster and UNHCR note says fighting between federal forces and an opposition-affiliated armed group killed at least 13 people, injured 189, and displaced about 12,500 households, spreading through crowded areas like Hawlwadaag and Abdiaziz before easing. Food Security Pressure: The UN World Food Programme warns the Middle East conflict is already worsening hunger far beyond the region, with soaring oil prices and disrupted shipping pushing more people toward acute food insecurity—Somalia is flagged among the hardest hit. Somalia Political Tensions: The AU and IGAD urged calm as Mogadishu descended into chaos over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term extension, with clashes tied to the electoral transition. Humanitarian Fallout in Somalia: A drought-and-flood displacement story from Mogadishu highlights how families fleeing rural collapse end up trapped in poor conditions in IDP camps, with hunger following the weather shocks. Climate Risk Readiness: Somalia’s climate early warning system and risk-management cooperation efforts with Swedish partners point to growing focus on preparing communities for extreme weather. EU Migration Moves: EU ministers discussed new restrictive visa measures for Somali nationals as irregular arrivals rise, citing weak readmission cooperation. Regional Diplomacy: UAE and South Africa reviewed regional developments including Somalia, linking stability efforts to sustainable peace.

Mogadishu Crisis: Heavy fighting in Somalia’s capital has intensified for a second day, with federal forces using heavy artillery against opposition-aligned militias after a dispute over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term extension—thousands of civilians reportedly fled as shells hit residential areas. Food Security Shock: The UN World Food Programme warns the Middle East conflict is already worsening hunger far beyond the region; in Somalia, an additional 2.5 million people are struggling to meet basic food needs as aid and costs rise. Climate Risk Preparedness: Somalia is among countries participating in a global push for early warning systems; Cambodia’s new multi-hazard early warning project (including droughts, floods, storms, and lightning) highlights the kind of preparedness Somalia’s communities will need as climate hazards grow. EU Migration Pressure: EU ministers discussed Somalia on immigration, citing increased irregular arrivals and urging stronger readmission cooperation, with restrictive visa measures on the table. Regional Diplomacy: UAE and South Africa reviewed regional developments and discussed Somalia’s situation, focusing on stability, sustainable peace, and cooperation.

Food Security Shock: The UN and WFP say the Middle East war is already pushing people toward acute hunger far beyond the region, warning that if oil stays near $100 a barrel through June, another 45 million could face hunger—on top of nearly 320 million already acutely food insecure; WFP links the rise to higher rice and wheat costs, disrupted shipping, and aid funding shortages, with Somalia named among the hardest hit. Somalia Politics & Safety: Heavy clashes in Mogadishu for a second day have followed the delayed national elections and the constitutional fight over President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s extended term, with residents reporting shelling, fires, and civilians fleeing. EU Migration Pressure: EU Home Affairs ministers discussed new restrictive visa measures for Somali nationals, citing doubled irregular arrivals and saying readmission cooperation is inadequate. Climate Risk Prep: Somalia is listed among countries in a global push for early warning systems, as Cambodia launches multi-hazard alerts for storms, floods, droughts, and lightning—highlighting the growing focus on preparedness.

Food Security Under Pressure: A new WFP analysis says the Middle East crisis is already driving hunger in Somalia, adding 2.5 million people struggling to meet basic food needs and pushing some toward acute hunger. Humanitarian Funding Cuts: UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warns aid cuts force brutal choices on which lives to save, as needs keep rising. Mogadishu Violence and Displacement: Heavy clashes in Mogadishu for a second day—linked to tensions over delayed national elections—have sent thousands fleeing and raised fears of wider instability. Puntland Warns Federal Attacks: Puntland condemned alleged federal force attacks on homes of opposition leaders, urging restraint as political tensions threaten national stability. Climate Risk Preparedness: Somalia is among countries backing early-warning efforts; UN and disaster-agency coordination meetings highlight the push to improve drought and flood response. Migration and Policy Pressure (EU): EU ministers reviewed asylum and migration pact rollout, with cooperation issues including Somalia flagged as a concern.

Climate Early Warning: Somalia launched a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with UNDP and the Green Climate Fund, aiming to cut disaster deaths by 42% by 2030 and expand coverage from 20% to full national reach, with the Disaster Management Agency leading and targeting drought, floods and other hazards. Risk Management Partnerships: A Swedish delegation visited SoDMA to discuss stronger cooperation on disaster preparedness, risk reduction and early warning, including a tour of the agency’s data center. Humanitarian Coordination: Somalia’s disaster management agency and UN officials held a monthly meeting to review drought and flood impacts and push better coordination for aid delivery. Security and Environment Stress: Heavy fighting in Mogadishu for a second day—linked to the electoral impasse after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term extension—has driven thousands of civilians to flee, raising risks for water, sanitation and emergency response. Global Aid Pressure: UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that aid cuts force “brutal decisions” on which lives to save, underscoring the squeeze on crisis response.

Climate Resilience: Somalia launched a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with UNDP and the Green Climate Fund, aiming to cut disaster deaths by 42% by 2030 and expand coverage from 20% to full national reach, with support for drought, floods and other climate hazards. Risk Management Cooperation: A Swedish delegation visited Somalia’s disaster agency (SoDMA) to strengthen disaster preparedness, risk reduction and early warning data-sharing, including a tour of SoDMA’s data center. Humanitarian Coordination: SoDMA and UN officials held a monthly meeting to review Somalia’s humanitarian situation and improve aid delivery for communities hit by drought, flooding and recurring climate shocks. Security & Stability: Danab Special Forces carried out planned operations in Middle Shabelle to deny Al-Shabaab freedom of movement, while Mogadishu saw overnight gunfire as political tensions escalated around President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term extension.

Climate Resilience: Somalia launched a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with UNDP and the Green Climate Fund to cut disaster deaths by 42% by 2030 and expand early warning coverage to full national reach, targeting droughts, floods and other climate shocks. Risk Management Cooperation: A Swedish delegation met Somalia’s National Disaster Management Agency to strengthen disaster preparedness, risk reduction and early warning data-sharing, including a tour of SoDMA’s data center. Security-Environment Link: EUCAP Somalia and Somalia’s Internal Security minister discussed technical support and training for security institutions, including the Somali Police Force and Coast Guard—key for protecting coastal and disaster response operations. Weather Watch: The World Meteorological Organization warned El Niño conditions are developing, with higher global temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns expected across many regions, raising heat and flood risks for vulnerable communities. Political Stability: The UN and partners urged Somali leaders to agree on an election framework and timetable through urgent dialogue, warning that prolonged uncertainty could destabilize the country and worsen humanitarian pressures.

Climate Resilience: Somalia launched a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with UNDP and the Green Climate Fund to cut disaster deaths by 42% by 2030, expanding early warnings from 20% to full national coverage and targeting droughts, floods and other climate hazards. Disaster Risk Support: A Swedish delegation visited Somalia’s National Disaster Management Agency to strengthen cooperation on preparedness, risk reduction and early warning, touring SoDMA’s data systems for collecting and sharing hazard alerts. Security & Coastal Capacity: Somalia’s Internal Security minister met EUCAP Somalia to expand training and technical support for the Somali Police Force, Darwish Forces and the Somali Coast Guard, with a focus on aligning assistance with national priorities. Political Stability: The UN and multiple partners urged Somalia’s federal government and opposition to agree on an election framework and timetable, warning that prolonged uncertainty could threaten stability. Weather Watch: The WMO says El Niño is developing with an 80% chance between June and August, raising risks of hotter conditions and shifting rainfall patterns across Africa.

Climate Resilience: Somalia has launched a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System with UNDP and the Green Climate Fund to cut disaster deaths by 42% by 2030, expand national coverage to full reach, and help 1.2 million people access alerts for droughts, floods, and other climate hazards. Disaster Risk Cooperation: A Swedish delegation visited Somalia’s National Disaster Management Agency to strengthen partnerships on preparedness, risk reduction, and early warning, including a tour of the agency’s data center. Weather Watch: The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is likely to develop (80% chance) and could last through late 2026, raising risks of hotter conditions and shifting rainfall patterns across parts of Africa, including Somalia’s region. Political Stability & Environment Links: International partners urged Somalia’s government and opposition to resume dialogue on the election roadmap, warning that prolonged uncertainty could undermine stability—an issue that often worsens disaster response and humanitarian planning.

Somalia Politics & Dialogue: The UN and a wide group of international partners urged Somalia’s Federal Government and opposition to restart urgent dialogue and agree on an election framework and timetable, warning that prolonged uncertainty could destabilize the country; the call also stressed restraint and offered mediation support if requested. Security in Baidoa: Somali National Army commanders met in Baidoa after clashes with Laftagareen loyalists, saying government forces repelled an attack and reinforced positions to protect civilians. Diplomacy Fallout: Somalia recalled its ambassador to Kenya after a social-media backlash over a photo taken at an agricultural trade event involving Israel’s envoy, with an internal review launched over authorization procedures. Education Access: Banadir announced the Grade 8 exam timetable for the 2025–26 year, saying preparations are complete and exams aim to strengthen transparency and common national standards. Climate & Weather Signals: While not Somalia-specific, regional reporting warned that misleading online weather claims can disrupt climate-sensitive planning, urging people to rely on official forecasts.

Somalia–Kenya Diplomacy: Somalia recalled its ambassador to Kenya after a widely shared photo showing him alongside Israel’s envoy at an agricultural trade conference, with an internal review now checking whether proper authorization was followed. Press Freedom Under Strain: The International Press Institute warned of rising attacks, arrests, intimidation, and harassment of journalists in Somalia, including cases tied to coverage of forced evictions and even climate/environment reporting. Political Tensions & Elections: The EU, UN and several countries urged Somalia’s government and opposition to quickly resume dialogue and agree on an election roadmap as opposition groups plan a major protest on June 4. Education & Accountability: Banadir announced the Grade 8 exam timetable for the 2025–26 school year, stressing transparency and fairness ahead of national secondary exams. Climate Signals: A separate regional update flagged that some online weather claims are misleading, while official forecasts point to a warmer and drier-than-normal period in June–August 2026. Maritime Environment Link: With Strait of Hormuz disruption continuing, shipping risk is being pushed toward the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden—an environmental and coastal threat for Somalia’s waters.

Diplomacy & Sovereignty: Somalia recalled its ambassador to Kenya after a widely shared photo showing him alongside Israel’s envoy at a Nairobi agricultural trade event, with an internal review underway over whether proper authorization was followed. Climate Outlook: Somalia’s region is seeing mixed signals as officials warn against misleading weather claims; one report points to isolated rainfall in northern and southern Somalia while the broader seasonal picture favors warmer, drier conditions. Media Freedom: The International Press Institute raised alarm over escalating attacks on journalists in Somalia, including cases tied to coverage of forced evictions, urging international pressure for accountability. Education Access: Banadir announced the Grade 8 exam timetable for the 2025–26 school year, with preparations focused on transparency and fairness ahead of national secondary exams. Water & Resilience Finance: A new AfDB–WEF roadmap to mobilize private investment for fragile economies includes Somalia in pilot programs, aiming to shift from aid dependence toward resilience and investment-led development. Regional Security: Somali army commanders met in Baidoa after clashes with Laftagareen loyalists, reinforcing security positions as the political transition remains tense. Maritime Risk: With Strait of Hormuz disruption dragging on, shipping and security firms highlight spillover risks for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea routes, underscoring pressure on regional energy and trade stability.