AGP Executive Report

Climate Resilience in Somalia: Somalia’s federal government launched a $12m climate resilience project for 17 cities (2026–2030), aiming to cut flood risks, restore ecosystems, and improve water management—though Puntland and the Northeastern Administration were left out of the site list. Disaster Preparedness: Action Against Hunger and IGAD’s ICPAC rolled out IMPAACT, a two-year, ECHO-funded initiative to build interoperable multi-hazard anticipatory action systems across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti, targeting 243,801 people. Regional Mobility: IGAD intensified consultations in Mogadishu to speed Somalia’s ratification and implementation of the Free Movement of Persons protocol, including plans for interoperable IDs and a single visa to support lawful labour mobility. Peace Mission Funding: AU officials urged stronger, predictable African financing for AUSSOM, warning that funding gaps could weaken security gains against Al-Shabaab. Global Climate Signal: June 2026 was reported as the world’s second-hottest June on record, underscoring the pressure on Somalia’s already climate-stressed communities.

Climate Resilience & Urban Water: Somalia launched a $12m climate resilience project (2026–2030) across 17 cities to cut flood risks, restore ecosystems, and improve water management and urban greening—though Northeastern-administered areas were left out. Regional Mobility & Jobs: IGAD stepped up consultations in Mogadishu to speed Somalia’s ratification of the Free Movement of Persons Protocol, aiming for safer, orderly labor mobility and better governance for migrant workers. Peace Mission Funding: AU Commission Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged more reliable, African-led financing for AUSSOM, warning that unpredictable funding could weaken gains against Al-Shabaab. Somalia’s Foreign Partnerships: The Somali Cabinet approved MoUs with China, India, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan covering scholarships, human resources, and political consultations. Digital Growth: Somalia’s NCA and iRise Hub signed an MOU to support digital modernization, youth entrepreneurship, cybersecurity research, and skills for local start-ups. Global Climate Pressure: Reports flagged June 2026 as the world’s second-hottest June on record, while UN agencies warned El Niño could intensify drought and flooding risks across high-risk African countries including Somalia. Maritime Security: New coverage notes Somali piracy is re-emerging, stressing the need for regionally anchored security to protect the Horn’s shipping and “blue economy.”

Climate Finance & Resilience: Somalia launched a $12m UNDP/GEF climate resilience project for 17 cities (2026–2030), targeting water management, flood mitigation, ecosystem restoration, sustainable urban planning and urban greening—while Northeastern administration areas were left out. Regional Mobility: IGAD and Somali stakeholders met in Mogadishu to push ratification and implementation of the IGAD Free Movement of Persons Protocol, including safe, orderly labour mobility and a roadmap for interoperable IDs and a single visa. Climate Justice Funding Gap: Campaigners warn the Loss and Damage fund needs far more finance to deliver climate justice as funding risks running out in 2027. Weather Risk for the Horn: UN agencies are appealing for $200m+ to protect 8.8m people in high-risk countries from El Niño impacts, with Somalia listed among those most at risk. Maritime Security & Piracy: IMO flagged a piracy resurgence off Somalia and Yemen, warning shipping operators to stay alert as incidents rise. Blue Economy Security: Experts say Africa can’t rely on foreign powers for maritime protection and are calling for stronger navies, surveillance and regional cooperation. Digital Governance: Somalia endorsed India’s concerns over WhatsApp usernames, backing tighter identity and traceability rules to reduce security and fraud risks. Somalia Funding Pressure: Reports note Somalia’s financing crunch after US security cuts, raising doubts for AU stabilization support.

El Niño food risk: UN agencies say El Niño is likely to strengthen and could hit drought-prone and flood-prone areas across Africa, with Somalia among 22 high-risk countries; FAO and WFP are appealing for over $200m to protect 8.8m people with climate-resilient seeds, livestock support, cash transfers and flood-control measures. Maritime safety & piracy: The IMO warns piracy is rising off Somalia and Yemen, with 24 incidents in three months, as global shipping faces added strain from wider Middle East tensions—highlighting direct risks to trade and food security. Somalia security funding pressure: The AU calls for stronger, more predictable financing for AUSSOM, warning that funding gaps could weaken gains against Al-Shabaab as Somalia’s own security transition ramps up. Regional mobility push: IGAD is consulting Somali stakeholders on ratifying the Free Movement of Persons protocol, including plans for interoperable IDs and a single visa to ease movement of people and goods. Digital governance: Somalia’s NCA and iRise Hub signed an MOU to boost digital modernisation, youth entrepreneurship, cybersecurity research and support for local start-ups. Trade & logistics: ProCharter launches new air cargo corridors linking Nairobi with Mogadishu, Kismayo, Djibouti and Juba to improve regional freight connectivity.

Maritime Security: The IMO Council in London put piracy and the Strait of Hormuz back in focus, warning that Somali-linked attacks off Somalia and Yemen are rising again and urging safer shipping practices. Regional Mobility & Data Rules: IGAD launched consultations in Mogadishu to speed up the Free Movement of Persons protocol, including an interoperable ID and single visa plan, while Somalia backed India’s concerns over WhatsApp usernames that could weaken phone-linked traceability. Climate & Food Risk: UN agencies appealed for $200M+ to protect 8.8 million people in high-risk African countries from El Niño impacts, with Somalia named among those most exposed. Food Assistance on the Ground: Somalia’s SoDMA began the first phase of emergency food distributions in central and southern regions, delivering 56kg packages to vulnerable families. Funding Pressure: Ethiopia’s export boom and Kenya’s investment surge highlighted Somalia’s squeeze after U.S. security funding cuts, raising doubts for Somali institutions and the AU mission. Coastline Control: Puntland reaffirmed authority over its territorial waters and warned foreign firms to seek prior approval before any fisheries or coastguard-related activities. Piracy Resurgence Debate: Analysts warned that piracy is re-emerging off the Horn, but the old NATO-led model won’t work today—Somalia needs a more regionally anchored security approach.

Maritime Security: The UN and naval partners say Somali pirate attacks off the Horn are rising again, with the latest incident reported in the Red Sea as tensions around the Persian Gulf and the Iran–U.S. standoff keep shipping on edge. Climate & Food Security: UN agencies warn El Niño is set to strengthen and could hit Somalia hard, with a call for $200M+ to protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries using cash support, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood-control measures. Local Resilience & Services: Somalia’s Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) has started the first phase of emergency food distributions in central and southern areas near Mogadishu, delivering 56kg food packages to vulnerable families. Governance & Resources: Puntland reaffirmed it controls its land and maritime resources, warning foreign firms not to operate in its waters without prior approval. Security on the Ground: Reports from Mogadishu’s western outskirts describe Al-Shabaab patrols after sunset, raising new concerns despite claims of improved capital security.

El Niño & food security: FAO and WFP are appealing for over $200m to protect 8.8 million people in high-risk countries, including Somalia, from the return of destructive El Niño—supporting cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood-control. Emergency food in Somalia: SoDMA has started the first phase of emergency food distributions in central and southern regions, delivering 56kg packages (rice, flour, sugar, cooking oil) to vulnerable families in areas near Mogadishu. Somalia’s security ripple effects: Reports say Al-Shabaab militants are conducting routine after-sunset patrols in parts of Mogadishu’s western outskirts, despite government claims of improved security. Maritime risks for the region: The IMO council flagged instability around the Strait of Hormuz and a resurgence of piracy off Somalia and Yemen, warning of impacts on global trade, energy and food security. Climate-linked infrastructure pressure: A World Bank-linked warning highlights how poor planning and weak maintenance waste infrastructure investment—an issue that matters as extreme weather and climate shocks intensify.

El Niño Food Risk for Somalia: FAO and WFP are appealing for over $200m to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries, including Somalia, warning El Niño could bring extreme swings—drought in some areas and heavy rain in others—along with needs like climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection, flood control, and cash support. Maritime Security & Piracy: The IMO Council session in London put Strait of Hormuz instability, piracy, and the safety of shipping lanes on the agenda, noting a resurgence of piracy off Somalia and Yemen with 24 incidents in three months and renewed calls to secure the release of hijacked crews. Somalia Food Aid Push: SoDMA launched the first phase of emergency food distributions in central and southern regions near Mogadishu, delivering 56kg packages (rice, flour, sugar, cooking oil) to vulnerable families. Puntland Resource Control: Puntland reaffirmed its authority over land and maritime resources, warning foreign firms not to operate in its waters without prior approval. Security on the Ground: Reports say Al-Shabaab militants have been patrolling Mogadishu outskirts after sunset, despite government claims of improved capital security. Climate-Linked Security Debate: A new analysis argues climate change is becoming a direct security threat, affecting troop endurance, coastal infrastructure, and disaster risk—raising the stakes for defense planning.

Humanitarian Food Support: Somalia’s Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) has started the first phase of emergency food distributions in central and southern regions, including Masagawa (Galgadud), Eldher, and Elasha Biyaha near Mogadishu, delivering 56kg packages of rice, flour, sugar and cooking oil to vulnerable families. Federal Member-State Control: Puntland says it will not allow foreign governments or companies to operate in its territorial waters without prior approval, warning that federal institutions in Mogadishu cannot grant resource concessions tied to Puntland’s coastline and maritime areas. Security Funding Shock: The U.S. plans to stop UN logistical support for the AU mission in Somalia after 2026, raising uncertainty for thousands of personnel who rely on UN-backed fuel, food, medical and transport. Climate Risk Signals: The World Meteorological Organization warns of a potentially strong El Niño, with higher chances of drought and heavy rainfall across vulnerable regions, including the Horn of Africa—an added stressor for food security. Trade & Logistics: ProCharter launched four new air cargo corridors with weekly round trips linking Nairobi to Mogadishu, Kismayo, Djibouti and Juba to move time-sensitive goods faster.

Humanitarian Relief: SoDMA has started the first phase of emergency food distributions in central and southern Somalia, delivering 56-kilogram packages (rice, flour, sugar, cooking oil) to families in Masagawa, Eldher and Elasha Biyaha near Mogadishu, as rising food insecurity continues to squeeze vulnerable households. Security & Governance: Puntland says it will not allow foreign governments or companies to operate in its territorial waters without prior approval, warning against unapproved fisheries and coastguard activities, including those linked to Turkey’s SOMTÜRK. Regional Stability: A UPDF commander in Mogadishu urged tighter discipline and professionalism for troops serving under the AU mission, as uncertainty grows after the U.S. signalled it will stop funding UN logistical support for AUSSOM/UNSOS beyond end-2026. Climate Risk: The WMO warns there’s an 80–90% chance of a strong El Niño developing soon, with drought and heavy rainfall risks that could hit the Horn of Africa and other vulnerable regions. Water Stress Lens: A new global mapping highlights extreme water stress in many countries, underscoring how freshwater shortages can intensify climate and food pressures across the region.

Climate Risk: The World Meteorological Organization warns there’s an 80–90% chance of a “super strong” El Niño forming soon, with effects likely into November—raising risks of drought, heavy rain, and heatwaves, including across the Horn of Africa. Water Stress: A new global map highlights how some countries are using far more freshwater than nature can replenish; Kuwait tops the list, while Yemen and parts of the region face severe pressure—an issue that climate swings can worsen. Security & Environment: Residents on Mogadishu’s western outskirts say Al-Shabaab patrols openly after sunset in neighborhoods near Elasha Biyaha and Ma’aane, raising fears for civilians and for safe access to services. Regional Stability: The U.S. says it will stop funding UN logistical support for Somalia’s AU mission after 2026, putting supplies like fuel, water, medical support, and transport at risk. Policy & Development: The World Bank urges reforms to unlock construction jobs in Uganda—highlighting how weak regulation and procurement can limit employment and urban growth.

El Niño Watch for the Horn: The World Meteorological Organization says there’s an 80–90% chance of a “super strong” El Niño in the coming weeks, with drought and heavy rain risks that could hit drought-prone areas including the Horn of Africa. Security & Civilians in Mogadishu: Residents on Mogadishu’s western outskirts report Al-Shabaab patrols through populated neighborhoods after sunset, even as the federal government claims security gains. Somalia Peacekeeping Logistics at Risk: The U.S. says it will stop supporting the UN logistics office in Somalia (UNSOS) after 2026, threatening the AU mission’s supply of food, fuel, medical support, and transport. Water Stress Snapshot: A new global map highlights extreme water stress in several countries, underscoring how climate-driven demand can outstrip renewable supplies. Somalia–Israel Tensions: Egypt reaffirmed Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity while condemning Somaliland’s move to open a representative office in “al-Quds,” keeping regional political pressure tied to the Horn’s stability.

Climate Risk for the Horn: The World Meteorological Organization warns a “super strong” El Niño is likely soon, with drought risks in parts of the Horn of Africa alongside heavier rain elsewhere—raising stakes for Somalia’s food and water security. Somalia Security Funding Shock: The U.S. says it will stop supporting the UN logistics office (UNSOS) for the AU mission in Somalia after 2026, threatening supplies like fuel, transport, and medical support for AUSSOM troops. Somalia–Israel Tensions: Egypt reaffirmed Somalia’s unity and sovereignty, condemning Somaliland’s move to open a representative office in “occupied al-Quds,” and urged sustainable funding for the AU mission. Smart Farming Push: FAO opened a Global Conference on Smart Farming to speed up practical innovations for farmers—relevant for drought-hit livelihoods across the region. El Niño Planning in Somalia’s Neighborhood: Cabinet activates El Niño plans in the region, signaling governments are preparing for climate extremes that can quickly turn into humanitarian crises.

Somalia Security & Aid: The U.S. says it will stop funding UN logistical support for Somalia’s AU mission after 2026, raising fresh uncertainty for AUSSOM troops that rely on UNSOS for fuel, food, transport, medical help, and communications. Climate & Food Systems: A wider climate backdrop is building: the World Bank has dropped its climate lending target, while El Niño-linked weather risks and fertilizer shocks tied to the Strait of Hormuz are expected to ripple into food prices—an issue that matters for Somalia’s drought-prone communities. Regional Water & Sovereignty: Egypt reaffirmed support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, condemning Somaliland’s move to open a representative office in “occupied al-Quds,” and urged sustainable funding for the AU mission. Smart Farming Push: FAO opened a Global Conference on Smart Farming, pitching practical ways to help farmers adapt to climate variability, soil and water degradation, and rising input costs. Somalia in Global Policy: Somalia’s Ministry of Health is represented in Gavi governance, with a Somalia official named to share leadership roles—relevant for health resilience as climate stress grows.

Somalia–Al-Shabaab Security: The U.S. says it will stop UN logistical support for the AU mission in Somalia after 2026, leaving AUSSOM’s operations uncertain and raising pressure on regional funding and planning. Somalia Governance & Climate: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inaugurated a new Ministry of Interior headquarters in Mogadishu and laid the foundation for a Ministry of Environment and Climate Change building, with plans for offices, training halls and green spaces to boost climate response. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt reaffirmed Somalia’s unity and sovereignty, condemning Somaliland’s move to open a representative office in “occupied al-Quds,” while urging sustainable funding for the AU mission. Climate & Food Systems: A global fertilizer shortage linked to the Iran war is pushing up fertilizer prices and could lift food prices later in the year, with knock-on risks for Somalia’s food security. Smart Farming Push: FAO opened a Global Conference on Smart Farming, spotlighting climate-resilient, small-producer-focused approaches as soil and water degradation worsen. Cyber Resilience: IGAD’s 2026 regional cyber drill concluded with calls for stronger cross-border cooperation, including plans for an information-sharing center that includes Somalia.

Somalia Climate & Institutions: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inaugurated a new Interior Ministry headquarters in Mogadishu and laid the foundation for a Ministry of Environment and Climate Change building, with plans for offices, training halls and green spaces to boost environmental protection and climate response. El Niño Preparedness: Kenya activated an El Niño contingency plan led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, including flood mitigation, evacuations, drainage clearance, support for farmers and a relief contingency fund—an important regional signal for Somalia’s shared weather risks. Food & Farming Resilience: FAO opened its first Global Conference on Smart Farming, pushing climate-smart methods for smallholders facing soil and water degradation and rising costs. Security & Civilian Impact: A Crisis Group report says Somalia’s war with Al-Shabaab remains a fragile stalemate, with neither side able to secure a decisive edge—highlighting the need for better military training, federal coordination and expanded humanitarian access. Maritime Environment & Risk: Somali piracy is surging amid wider Gulf instability, with hijackings of dhows and commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden and western Indian Ocean—raising risks for coastal livelihoods and marine safety. Regional Cyber Cooperation: IGAD’s Regional Cyber Drill 2026 wrapped up with calls for stronger cross-border cybersecurity coordination, including plans for an information-sharing center. US Policy Shock (Somalia-linked): The US Supreme Court ruling allows the Trump administration to end TPS for migrants from several countries including Somalia, potentially affecting thousands already living in the US.